Four proprietary tools that show what the market can't see.
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Market Error Index
Z-score anomaly detector across price deviation, velocity, liquidity, and order book imbalance. Scores 0 to 100 — the higher, the more likely the market is mispricing.
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Whale Index
Compares top holder positioning to market price. Directional bias alerts at 3%+ divergence from consensus. Strong signals at 10%+.
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Whale Domination
Concentration of top 1, 5, 20, and 100 holders from 500 analyzed — separately for YES and NO. See if one wallet controls the market.
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Whale Activity
Real-time feed of $10K+ trades across all markets. Entry prices, wallet addresses, and directional signals — filtered to remove bots.
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About
What is Galton?
A prediction market intelligence platform designed to help traders and researchers understand how markets price real-world events — not just the surface, but the structure beneath it.
The Idea
Galton is inspired by the work of Francis Galton and the concept of the wisdom of crowds. Prediction markets represent one of the purest real-world implementations of this idea: a large number of participants, each with different information and incentives, collectively forming a probability estimate of future events.
In theory, this process is highly efficient. In practice, markets can be influenced by large participants, structurally imbalanced, or driven by short-term flows disconnected from fundamentals. Understanding the structure of the crowd is just as important as observing its final prediction.
What We Do
Galton is a market intelligence terminal focused on market structure and participant behavior — not just price. It provides tools to analyze how probabilities evolve, how capital is distributed, how concentrated positions are, and how much influence large players have on the market.
Core Tools
Whale Index — measures how large holders are positioned within a market, comparing their capital allocation to the current price. Reveals whether large players are aligned with or diverging from market consensus.
Whale Domination — measures market concentration by calculating the share held by top participants (Top 1, 5, 20, 100) relative to the broader base. High domination signals fragility and sensitivity to large moves.
Probability Behavior — tracks how probabilities evolve over time, the speed and magnitude of changes, and patterns of market behavior under uncertainty.
Market Error Index — a long-term objective: a metric to quantify how reliable or unstable a market may be, based on concentration, behavior, and structural signals.
Our Principles
01
Data Over Opinion
We focus on measurable signals, not narratives.
02
Structure Over Surface
Understanding market structure matters more than observing price alone.
03
Transparency of the Crowd
We make participant behavior visible and analyzable.
Long-Term Vision
Galton's long-term vision is to become the intelligence layer for prediction markets. If prediction markets evolve into a core system for aggregating global beliefs and expectations, then understanding their structure becomes critical.
At its core, Galton is an attempt to bring the idea of the wisdom of crowds into a structured, data-driven framework — making the crowd measurable, market structure transparent, and probability a deeper analytical signal.